Charlie Munger, one of my heroes, says that smart people are are often wrong because they don't use checklists for decision making. Here is Munger's checklist for problem solving: 1. Decide the "no-brainer" questions first 2. Apply Numerical fluency 3. Invert (think the problem in reverse) 4. Apply elementary multidisciplinary wisdom, never relying entirely upon others 5. Watch for combination of factors- the Lollapalooza effect Munger defines Lollapalooza as the critical mass obtained via a combination of concentration, curiosity, perseverance, and self-criticism, applied through a prism of multidisciplinary mental models.