CDOQ

"Our perception evolved for usefulness, not truthfulness."  - Henry Schurkus 

As the technologies get more complex, it is becoming harder for us to understand how things around us work.

Why is it easier to remember the truths than lies?

More battles are lost due to stupidity than won by brilliance. 

What is a Product? It is something that requires effort to make and someone finds it valuable enough to give up money or time in exchange to use it. For example, we spend money to use the iPhone and we give up time to use TikTok. Both products are made with human effort.  AI idea of product surfaces and product enablers What is a Product surface? The part of the product which a user utilizes to interact with the product. For example, Google search webpage is a product surface which is part of the Google search product. The product has other surfaces for advertisers, mobile app users, and users who use voice to interact with the product, etc.. Search algorithms are part of the Google search product but they work behind the scenes with the user interaction occurring via the product surface.  What are product enablers? The part of the product that the users don’t  see but are necessary for the product to perform and for the organization to build the product. For example, the...

Expectations cloud logic. 

A good product manager works with first principles. 

A good product manager understands the capabilities and limits of the organization. 

A good product manager understands the capabilities and limits of technology.

A good product manager knows when to be flexible and when to be rigid. 

A good product manager learns from experimentation. 

A good product manager understands the interconnectedness between technology and user experience. 

It is easy to align people to do the right thing as long as people have the same idea of the right thing. 

A product manager who builds all the features that customers request has a lot to learn about the craft. 

A good product manager understands how solving a user problem might create new user problems. 

A good product manager knows why a customer is requesting a feature, i.e., what user problem is the customer trying to solve. 

A key responsibility of the product manager is to say no to a lot of good ideas that don't work with the product strategy. 

A product manager who keeps all the stakeholders happy is not a good product manager. 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/charlie-munger-close-up-warren-buffett-berkshire-bff539ca

Beauty is food for the soul. 

There are more boundaries in my head than in the physical world. 

Computers dominate our world today and their dominance will continue to increase over time. Since I work in Hi-Tech, working with computers has been an integral part of my life. To get better at working with computers, I read Computational Thinking . The book defines Computational Thinking (CT) as "the mental skills and practices for:  1. Designing computations that get computers to do jobs for us; and  2. Explaining and interpreting the world as a complex of information processes.  The design aspect reflects the engineering traditions of computing in which people build methods and machines to help other people. The explanation aspect reflects the science tradition of computing in which people seek to understand how computation works and how it shows up in the world."  The book goes into the history of von Neumann architecture , computer science, software engineering and how things evolved over time. It is a fascinating read. I found the following paragraph to be par...

All Large Language Models (LLMs) outputs are probabilistic but we consider them as definitive. 

To better understand the world today, learn history.  Empire podcast is a  fun and addictive way to learn history. 

I have to write frequently for work. My writings include messages, presentation decks, articles, white papers, etc. A simple rule, I found useful, to make my writing more effective is to follow PAMD, which is:   1. P urpose: Why am I writing this document?  2. A udience: Who is the document for? How much do they know about what I am writing?  3. M essage: What is the message I want the audience to get from the document? What is the message I don't want the audience to get from the document?  4. D elivery: How will the document be delivered? In a meeting, via email, or in a solo presentation? PAMD for business writing  For example:  As a startup CEO, I might be writing a broad deck to be delivered in a board meeting. The purpose is to get buy-in from the board on a new strategy. The audience is all board members, senior executives from the startup, and the general counsel at the board meeting. The message might be that the recommended pivot is...

In group meetings of three or more people, you are never communicating with just one person. 

If you work at a pawn shop for a long time, you lose the ability to tell the difference between used goods and collectable items. 

Appreciation: The first time you give something to someone Anticipation: The second time you give the same thing to someone Expectation: The third time you give something to someone Entitlement: The fourth time you give something to someone Dependency: The fifth time you give something to someone As per Bob Lupton 

We might be susceptible to seeing words before numbers. 

We notice a change in our surroundings before we know what the change is. 

Romance is inversely proportional to efficiency and luxury is inversely  proportional to utility. No wonder luxury is considered romantic. 

We have more of everything and less of time. Does choice come at the expense of time?

Dreams visualize desires and do not show the trade offs that come with dreams coming true.

TikTok is banned on all US government devices and the US government often talks about banning TikTok entirely in the US. However, US President Biden now has an official accoun t on TikTok :) 

Society would be served better if we work on making Artificial Intelligence (AI) do things humans can not do rather than making AI more human like. 

Framing is how we look at the world. Everyone has their own frame. In business, framing is how we look at problems. Often, reframing a problem results in better decisions because you get a deeper understanding of the problem. Like Charles Kettering said, "A problem well-stated is a problem half-solved."  How do you reframe a problem? Deconstruct the framing into three elements - assumptions, optionality, and constraints - and analyze what can be changed in the three elements to create a new way of looking at the problem.  The three elements of framing are defined as follows:  1. Assumptions: What assumptions are embedded in the framing and how are they leading to conclusions?  2. Optionality: What are the other possibilities?  3. Constraints: What are the constraints embedded in the framing and how they can be changed?  Thinking through and analyzing these elements with a diverse group of people often results in reframing and better decisions....

Business executives would do better by spending more time thinking. 

In philosophy, argument reconstruction is defined as restating an argument as a logical sequence of premises supporting a conclusion. For example:  Argument: We have a decision to make today. Our competitor has launched a new product, we need to either launch a better product or lower the price of the current product.  Argument reconstruction:  1. Competitor has launched a new product.  2. There are only two possible responses to this event: launching a new product or lowering the price of the existing product.  3. Therefore, we must do one of these two things. Argument Reconstruction The argument reconstruction of the example makes it clear that you don't have to make any decision today and in addition to validating the premises, more options need to be explored.  Reconstructing arguments clarify thinking and help you see the flaws in assumptions.  Adapted from The Economist Education 

With the advent of new technologies in the last two decades, gossip spreads wide and deep at the speed of light. Truth, on the other hand, is becoming more elusive. 

In a business, revenue is the effect of solving problems for customers. Companies that focus on revenue and don't continuously improve the causes of revenue tend not to build enduring businesses. 

Human vision has evolved to see differences more than similarities. 

Concepts might limit seeing the reality. 

Question the obvious. 

Something that is obvious to you might be a new insight for someone else. 

In Silicon Valley, the product development approach of releasing the most basic version of the product ( Minimum Viable Product or MVP ) to some users who would find it valuable compared to available options and then iterating the product based on user-feedback, is well understood. In the CPG ( Consumer Packaged Goods ) world, the approach of testing a new product idea before any development work is done is practiced regularly. It might be hard to develop an MVP for a new soap but we, in the technology product development, can test new product ideas before we start building an MVP. Performing this test also helps with positioning the product in the market. Following is the three step MBR ( M ental model, B enefit, R eason to believe) approach of testing new product ideas:  Testing new product ideas  Start with writing down the singular product idea and then follow the three step MBR process in writing.  1. M ental model: How do users think about the product cate...

One doesn't change one's belief based on data contrary to the belief if changing the belief is painful. 

My breadth is my depth. 

When does an idea become more important than a human life? 

Society is a social construct that requires consistent reinforcement of friends and family bonds. Rituals are part of how a nuclear family operates. However, maintaining meaningful  relationships beyond the nuclear family requires effort because  we are living increasingly busy lives and and we don't live within a walking distance to our friends and extended family.  A society with happy people in harmony with nature  Getting together, eating together, sharing gifts or best wishes during the holidays is a good ritual that reinforces the bonds. And, I love the season because during the holidays  people are kinder and happier.  Happy Holidays and A Happy New Year!   

My hero, Charlie Munger , passed away on November 28th, 2023. He was 99 years old.  I met Munger in 2007 at my first Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting . It was admiration at first few words. I liked his depth of understanding in multiple domains, his honesty, and his willingness to share his wisdom. Since then I have read all his available writings and seen him many times in Omaha or Los Angeles at various shareholder meetings. He profoundly influenced Warren Buffett and the entire investing and business world. The world has lost a great leader, thinker, and teacher.  Munger's response to my letter      Since meeting Munger, I continue to learn from him and share what I am learning.  Following are a few Munger teachings that have become my habits:  1. Inversion: When you want to solve a problem, start with inverting the problem. For example, if you have to figure out how to keep the airplanes safe, work on figuring out how they can crash...

Earlier today I finished reading, Range (by David Epstein), an interesting book that makes a case of learning about multiple disciplines (becoming a "generalist") vs. specializing early in life (becoming a "specialist"). I found the case to be compelling probably because I am a generalist with broad experience.  Charlie Munger has talked about the same idea for decades. The study of complex systems is based on breaking the boundaries of academic disciplines.  The world needs both specialists and generalists. A lot more specialists than generalists.  Regardless, one has to pursue disciplines one is curious about. Some people are curious about a lot of things. 

Society is evolving to prioritize feelings over duty. It is dangerous. 

A company's technological competitive advantages are head start advantages in a race. If the company slows down in technology development, competitors catch up. 

Investment finance, as taught by business schools, is a study of sophistication and precision applied to guesswork. 

Charlie Munger, age 99, still sharing his wisdom, humor, and mistakes.  Notable Munger line from the Daily Journal ($DJCO) shareholder meeting - dumb is forever. 

Feelings don’t move the world forward. Action does. 

China realized that running the economy is more important than avoiding all COVID deaths because eventually more people might die because of a bad economy. 

Illogic in others can be used logically. 

Eventually, something widely useful will come out of blockchain and crypto technologies. 

It used to be that fiction was more important to the peace in society than the reality. 

Fiction is more dangerous to the peace in a society than the reality. 

Ambiguity can be beautiful.  Sunset in Cabo San Lucas 

Almost everything is relative. 

Intensity of expression declines with age. 

Politicians provide simple answers to complex problems. Management consultants provide complex answers to simple problems. 

Crisis clarifies. 

All human systems have their own variation of irrationality. 

It is not important to know everything but critical to know the difference between what you know and what you don't know. 

The happiest people are the ones not looking for happiness. 

Around three years ago, I started a podcast, Valley Nordic , with a Norwegian venture capitalist, Arne Tonning , as an experiment. Arne and I think differently about the the world. He has a Nordic and a venture capitalist perspective on technology companies and I have a silicon valley perspective on business. Hence, the podcast is titled Valley Nordic. We started as an experiment to see if we record our conversations and post them online, would anybody listen. A few days after our first episode was released, we got feedback that we needed topics for our episodes:) In essence, the podcast is a free flowing conversation between Arne and I on business, culture, and technology with our diverse perspectives as they relate to selected topics.  Thanks to our listeners, we published our 100th episode last week.  We looked into 27 companies and we were right about their growth challenges and their valuations. See the complete podcast episodes index:   Episode T...