Correlation vs. Causation

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To see how how the experts confuse correlation and causation everyday, watch financial news and analysis on CNBC or Bloomberg. 

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Obituary: Charles T. Munger

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My hero, Charlie Munger , passed away on November 28th, 2023. He was 99 years old.  I met Munger in 2007 at my first Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting . It was admiration at first few words. I liked his depth of understanding in multiple domains, his honesty, and his willingness to share his wisdom. Since then I have read all his available writings and seen him many times in Omaha or Los Angeles at various shareholder meetings. He profoundly influenced Warren Buffett and the entire investing and business world. The world has lost a great leader, thinker, and teacher.  Munger's response to my letter      Since meeting Munger, I continue to learn from him and share what I am learning.  Following are a few Munger teachings that have become my habits:  1. Inversion: When you want to solve a problem, start with inverting the problem. For example, if you have to figure out how to keep the airplanes safe, work on figuring out how they can crash.  2. Multi-disciplinary thinking:
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Systems Thinking as taught by Ackoff

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One of my heroes is Dr. Russell Ackoff . I have read a few books he has written and have learned Systems Thinking from him. I am surprised that the field of Systems Thinking is not well understood. Following is my attempt to share what I learned from one of Ackoff's recent lectures. Albert Einstein once said, "You can't solve a problem with the same mind that created it." According to Dr. Russell Ackoff most managers agree with Einstein's statement but not many know what it means. It is easy to agree with something whose meaning is vague. In the Renaissance era, when the science as we know it today was born, a scientific inquiry method called Analysis was developed. Analysis comes naturally to us. Just watch kids breaking new things and being curious about the parts. The understanding of something follows a three step process in analytical thinking: 1. Take it apart 2. Understand (function, role, behavior) what the parts do 3. Assemble the understanding of the pa
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Dynamics Of The Technology Ecosystem

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Context  The last two decades have completely changed the technology (tech) sector. Cloud computing , smartphones, apps, and high wireless data speeds are taken for granted. These developments have created a dynamic tech ecosystem.  Figure 1: Technology Ecosystem abstraction with examples in each layer  Having worked with some very smart people to develop and market new products in all parts of the tech ecosystem - Networks and mobile phones ( SIEMENS ), Network Operators ( T-Mobile ), Semiconductors ( National Semiconductor ), Algorithms/Artificial Intelligence ( Audience ), Cloud-based Applications ( EVER , Moki ), Blockchain and Consumer Hardware ( Open Garden ) - gives me a unique perspective on how the technology ecosystem works and how it might evolve.  In this article, I share my view on what constitutes the technology ecosystem, what are the primary business drivers depending on a company's position in the ecosystem, and how the ecosystem might ch
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