Correlation vs. Causation

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To see how how the experts confuse correlation and causation everyday, watch financial news and analysis on CNBC or Bloomberg. 

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Marry the best who will have you and other wisdom from Munger and Buffett

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I spent the last weekend in Omaha, Nebraska with two of the my heroes- Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett . After attending the Berkshire Hathaway (BH) for a few years, I still get amazed how a shareholder meeting attracts 40,000+ people and the meeting is about two guys having fun. Everyone else  enjoys watching them have fun. The format is six hours of open Q&A. There is no preparation by Munger and Buffett. Anyone can ask anything about anything expect what BH is going to buy/sell next. You will see it in the notes  that a wide variety of topics are covered. Notes from previous years are available here . The David Sokol issue was covered by Buffett and that part of the meeting has been recorded so I have not covered it in my notes. You can see it here. Munger talked more this year compared to previous years. I just love this man. He is brilliant! Following are my random notes from the meeting: Buffett does two things in his job- 1) keep operating manag...
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Obituary: Charles T. Munger

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My hero, Charlie Munger , passed away on November 28th, 2023. He was 99 years old.  I met Munger in 2007 at my first Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting . It was admiration at first few words. I liked his depth of understanding in multiple domains, his honesty, and his willingness to share his wisdom. Since then I have read all his available writings and seen him many times in Omaha or Los Angeles at various shareholder meetings. He profoundly influenced Warren Buffett and the entire investing and business world. The world has lost a great leader, thinker, and teacher.  Munger's response to my letter      Since meeting Munger, I continue to learn from him and share what I am learning.  Following are a few Munger teachings that have become my habits:  1. Inversion: When you want to solve a problem, start with inverting the problem. For example, if you have to figure out how to keep the airplanes safe, work on figuring out how they can crash...
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Systems Thinking as taught by Ackoff

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One of my heroes is Dr. Russell Ackoff . I have read a few books he has written and have learned Systems Thinking from him. I am surprised that the field of Systems Thinking is not well understood. Following is my attempt to share what I learned from one of Ackoff's recent lectures. Albert Einstein once said, "You can't solve a problem with the same mind that created it." According to Dr. Russell Ackoff most managers agree with Einstein's statement but not many know what it means. It is easy to agree with something whose meaning is vague. In the Renaissance era, when the science as we know it today was born, a scientific inquiry method called Analysis was developed. Analysis comes naturally to us. Just watch kids breaking new things and being curious about the parts. The understanding of something follows a three step process in analytical thinking: 1. Take it apart 2. Understand (function, role, behavior) what the parts do 3. Assemble the understanding of the pa...
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